Gold Prices Forecast 2012
Gold prices forecast 2012 to range of $1,645 to $1,730 according Goldman Sachs, We had expected gold prices would continue to rise through the middle of 2012, when we expected rising US economic growth would push real rates higher and gold prices lower. However, with our US economics team now lowering their outlook for US economic growth to 1.7% in 2011 and 2.1% in 2012, we now expect real interest rates will remain lower for longer, and we are now raising our gold price forecasts to $1,645/toz, $1,730/toz, and $1,860/toz on a 3, 6, and 12-month horizon, up from our prior forecasts of $1,565/toz, $1,635/toz, and $1,730/toz, respectively. Net, this revision in effect pulls forward the higher prices we expected on a 6 and 12-month horizon – as US economic growth has been slower, and US real interest rates lower, than previously anticipated – and extends the upward trajectory for gold prices through 2012. Further, the recent escalation of sovereign debt concerns suggests that the near-term risk to our new forecast is skewed to the upside, and we continue to recommend long trading positions in gold.
Gold prices forecast 2012 according JP Morgan upped its forecast to a high of $2,500... "Gold and sugar have potential to run a lot higher. It has been clear for weeks that the prompt CMX gold price has been building in a rising probability of a reflaring of financial crisis, gaining by 9.7% since June 30 as the MSCI World Equity index dropped by 10.1%. The correlation in daily price changes between these two assets has dropped to –0.09 from +0.29 over the prior year. Gold’s correlation against TIPS has doubled to 0.35 from 0.18. Against Italian and Spanish 5-year sovereign CDS prices, the gold correlation has moved to 0.27 and 0.32, from 0.07 and 0.04, respectively. Before the downgrade, our view was that cash gold could average $1800 per oz by year end. This view will likely now prove to be too conservative: spot gold could drive to $2500 per oz or higher, albeit on very high volatility."
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Spot gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,723.89 an ounce by 0031 GMT, on course for a weekly drop of 3.5 percent, its sharpest one-week decline since late September.
Spot gold rebounded to above its 50-day moving average, but the 50-day moving average is close to crossing below the 100-day moving average, seen as a bearish technical signal.
U.S. gold inched up 0.3 percent to $1,725.
Investors are worried that euro zone nations are spiraling deeper and deeper into the debt crisis, as borrowing costs for France and Spain rose sharply on the backdrop of violentnanti-austerity protests in Greece.
As spot gold posted its biggest one-day drop since the end of September, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, jumped nearly 1 percent from the previous session to a three-month high of 1,289.46 tonnes.
Spot silver gained 0.3 percent to $31.77, on course for a weekly decline of 8.5 percent, its sharpest weekly fall since late September. It dropped nearly 6 percent in the previous session, the biggest one-day fall since Sept. 28.
Category: futures gold prices, Gold, gold forecast, gold prices, gold prices 2012, gold prices outlook 2012, spot gold prices 2012
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