Coffee prices have basically been under pressured since May 2011 when they peaked above $3. Recent price action looks like coffee could be forming at least a short term bottom. Coffee futures gained 3.65 cents on the March contract to close at $2.1965 a pound on Monday.
When we look at the fundamental news, it doesn't look that great. In fact, the coffee market is well supplied in the near term, but there are a couple of factors that might make the picture look better.
The main news might be the fact that Vietnam could be holding a large amount of their supply off the market in an effort to wait for higher prices. Holding supply off the market can cause coffee prices to rise and Vietnam has successfully pulled this trick off in the past. Vietnam is a large coffee producer of lower quality beans, but they still carry a lot of weight.
The higher quality beans are actually in short supply right now and that could also be influencing a bounce in the market. I can't say it is time to run out and buy coffee, but the chart is flashing some buy signals right now. It looks like the coffee market is forming a double bottom with a nice spike reversal bar on Thursday after it broke support. Today, the market looked like it was going to make a break lower, but it reversed higher and that looks positive heading into Tuesday.
When we look at the fundamental news, it doesn't look that great. In fact, the coffee market is well supplied in the near term, but there are a couple of factors that might make the picture look better.
The main news might be the fact that Vietnam could be holding a large amount of their supply off the market in an effort to wait for higher prices. Holding supply off the market can cause coffee prices to rise and Vietnam has successfully pulled this trick off in the past. Vietnam is a large coffee producer of lower quality beans, but they still carry a lot of weight.
The higher quality beans are actually in short supply right now and that could also be influencing a bounce in the market. I can't say it is time to run out and buy coffee, but the chart is flashing some buy signals right now. It looks like the coffee market is forming a double bottom with a nice spike reversal bar on Thursday after it broke support. Today, the market looked like it was going to make a break lower, but it reversed higher and that looks positive heading into Tuesday.
Coffee futures prices were down for a fourth day on Monday, trading at the lowest level since December 2010 as inventories monitored by ICE Futures U.S. climbed for the seventh straight week, underlining concerns over ample global supplies.
On the ICE Futures Exchange, Arabica coffee for March delivery traded at USD2.1378 a pound during European afternoon trade, slumping 0.67%. It earlier fell by as much as 1.25% to trade at USD2.1238 a pound, the lowest since December 10, 2010.
Coffee futures have declined in eight of the last nine trading sessions, losing nearly 10% since the start of December as strong competition from low-cost producers in Central America and East Asia have dominated sentiment in recent weeks.
Stockpiles of coffee monitored by futures exchange operator Intercontinental Exchange have jumped 20% since November 1 to 1.53 million bags.
Coffee prices came under further pressure after a strike scheduled to begin Monday at Brazil's biggest port in Santos was called off ahead of a labor-court hearing later in the week, easing concerns over a disruption to shipments from the South American country.
Santos is Brazil's main exit point for agricultural exports such as coffee, sugar and orange juice.
Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter of Arabica coffee. Arabica is grown mainly in Latin America and brewed by specialty companies.
Despite the sharp drop in recent sessions, global financial service provider Commerzbank expects coffee prices to rebound amid concerns over crop conditions in Colombia, the world's second largest exporter of Arabica beans.
In a report published earlier the lender said, 'The ongoing harvest problems in Colombia this year should thus slow the latest sharp fall in coffee prices. In November, the coffee harvest in Colombia was down 13.7% year-on-year for the eighth time in a row."
Meanwhile, agricultural commodity traders awaited the outcome of a conference call of euro zone finance ministers later in the day about the draft text of a new fiscal plan agreed earlier this month. Talks were also to include the size of individual loans to the International Monetary Fund.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, cotton futures for March delivery jumped 1.05% to trade at USD 0.8722 a pound, while sugar futures for March delivery fell 0.6% to trade at USD0.2296 a pound.
On the ICE Futures Exchange, Arabica coffee for March delivery traded at USD2.1378 a pound during European afternoon trade, slumping 0.67%. It earlier fell by as much as 1.25% to trade at USD2.1238 a pound, the lowest since December 10, 2010.
Coffee futures have declined in eight of the last nine trading sessions, losing nearly 10% since the start of December as strong competition from low-cost producers in Central America and East Asia have dominated sentiment in recent weeks.
Stockpiles of coffee monitored by futures exchange operator Intercontinental Exchange have jumped 20% since November 1 to 1.53 million bags.
Coffee prices came under further pressure after a strike scheduled to begin Monday at Brazil's biggest port in Santos was called off ahead of a labor-court hearing later in the week, easing concerns over a disruption to shipments from the South American country.
Santos is Brazil's main exit point for agricultural exports such as coffee, sugar and orange juice.
Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter of Arabica coffee. Arabica is grown mainly in Latin America and brewed by specialty companies.
Despite the sharp drop in recent sessions, global financial service provider Commerzbank expects coffee prices to rebound amid concerns over crop conditions in Colombia, the world's second largest exporter of Arabica beans.
In a report published earlier the lender said, 'The ongoing harvest problems in Colombia this year should thus slow the latest sharp fall in coffee prices. In November, the coffee harvest in Colombia was down 13.7% year-on-year for the eighth time in a row."
Meanwhile, agricultural commodity traders awaited the outcome of a conference call of euro zone finance ministers later in the day about the draft text of a new fiscal plan agreed earlier this month. Talks were also to include the size of individual loans to the International Monetary Fund.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, cotton futures for March delivery jumped 1.05% to trade at USD 0.8722 a pound, while sugar futures for March delivery fell 0.6% to trade at USD0.2296 a pound.
