Soybean Prices 2011-2012 Rise, Oilseed Production Down

Soybean production is projected at 3.285 billion bushels, down 44 million from the 2010 crop mostly due to lower harvested area. Global oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at a record 459.2 million tons, up 2.2% from 2010-2011. Global soybean production is projected to increase less than 1% to 263.3 million tons. The Argentina crop is projected at 53 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2010-2011 crop based on a higher harvested area and yields.

Soybean prices futures for March delivery climbed 1.6 percent to $11.395 a bushel on the CBOT, bringing the gain this week to 2.9 percent, the most in two months. Soybeans rose on speculation that adverse weather will reduce yield potential in Argentina and Brazil, boosting demand for U.S. supplies.

Soybean yields are projected at a trend level of 43.4 bu./acre, down 0.1 bu. from 2010. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.47 billion bushels, down less than 1% from 2010-2011 as larger beginning stocks partly offset lower production. Soybean ending stocks for 2010-2011 are projected at 170 million bushels, up 30 million from last month due to reduced exports.

Soybean crush for 2011-2012 is projected at 1.655 billion bushels, up fractionally from 2010-2011 as a lower extraction rate offsets reduced total soybean meal demand. Lower soybean meal export demand projected for 2011-2012 is only partly offset by a small increase in domestic soybean meal use, leaving total soybean meal use down 1% from 2010-2011. Domestic soybean oil consumption is projected to increase 7% mostly due to biodiesel production gains. Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 3.5 billion pounds, up 1 billion from 2010-2011 reflecting a higher biodiesel use mandate.

With lower 2011-2012 U.S. soybean supplies and higher South American soybean supplies on hand this fall, U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.54 billion bushels, slightly below the 2010-2011 level despite a projected increase in global import demand led by China. Ending stocks for 2011-2012 are projected at 160 million bushels, down 10 million from 2010-2011, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at 4.8%.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2011-2012 is projected at $12-14/bu. compared with $11.40 in 2010-2011. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $350-380/short ton, compared with $350 for 2010-2011. Soybean oil prices are projected at 56-60¢/lb. compared with 53.5¢ for 2010-2011.

The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 72.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from the projected record 2010-2011 crop. A 3% increase in harvested area is more than offset by a return to trend yields. China soybean production is projected at 14.8 million tons, down 0.4 million from 2010-2011 due to lower area and yields. Higher rapeseed production for Canada, Australia, China and Ukraine more than offsets lower production for EU-27. For sunflowerseed, production gains for Russia, Ukraine and EU-27 more than offset reduced production in Argentina. Led by gains in global oilseed production, 2011-2012 oilseed supplies are up 2.4% from 2010-2011. With global crush projected to increase 3.5%, global oilseed stocks are projected to decline 1.5 million tons to 72.2 million.

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.6% in 2011-2012. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 7.8% in China, accounting for 54% of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 98.7 million tons, up 2.8% from 2010-2011. China soybean imports are projected at 58 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2010-2011. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 3.5% in 2011-2012, led by increases for China, India.

Category: oilseed production, Soybean, soybean 2012 prices, soybean commodity, soybean futures, soybean prices, soybean production