USDA Confirm Outlook Wheat Futures

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May Wheat finished up 1/4 at 641 1/4, 1 1/2 off the high and 8 3/4 up from the low. July Wheat closed down 2 at 653. This was 9 1/2 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high. May wheat closed slightly higher on the session and up sharply from the lows and closed 6 1/2 cents lower for the week.

The market traded inside of Tuesday's range for the past three sessions. With a larger than expected wheat production and ending stocks outlook from the USDA conference, the market pushed lower on the session even with another break in the US dollar.

USDA economists pegged US planted area at 58 million acres for the 2012/13 season, up 3.6 million from last year and up 1.5 million acres from the USDA baseline projections from just a few weeks ago. Spring wheat planted area is expected to jump after losing millions of acres to floodwaters last year.

US ending stocks for the 2012/13 season are expected increase to 957 million bushels from 845 million this year and 862 million last year. Net weekly export sales came in at 701,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 55,800 for the next marketing year for a total of 757,400 which was about as expected.

As of February 16th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 88.5 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 85.6 per cent.

Sales of 201,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Algeria bought 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat in their tender for 125,000 tonnes. Iran seeks to import 1 million tonnes from Pakistan in a barter deal.

A continued lack of significant rains in the forecast for the near-term for the central and southern plains, weakness in the dollar and a recovery in corn were all factors which may have helped support the rally to close higher on the day. March Oats closed down 2 1/2 at 311. This was 2 up from the low and 4 off the high.

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